Check out the Nuit Blanche posts “Predicting the Future: The Steamrollers“ and “Predicting the Future: Randomness and Parsimony” where Igor Carron repeats the well known mantra of Moore’s law that always seems to catch us by surprise. Carron’s remarks on medicine surprised me but also I thought, “I should have guessed that would happen” while reading the articles.
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For a critical take on prediction, read “Antifragile” by Taleb. Highly recommended.
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I did buy “Anitfragile” a week ago, but I am busy reading “Bend, Not Break: A Life in Two Worlds” a story about a Chinese immigrant who was partially responsible for Mosaic and Netscape. I love Taleb’s books, especially “The Black Swan”, but I sometimes disagree with his conclusions.
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